Fusion of Economic and Financial Factors Affecting Household Deposits in Banks: An Econometric Analysis

Zokir Mamadiyarov^1,2,3,*, Sаmаriddin Mаkhmudov^4,5, Bunyod Utanov⁶, Dilorom Kasimova⁷, Guzal Bekmurodova⁸, Zohid Hakimov⁹

¹Professor, Tashkent State University of Economics, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

²Professor, Department of Economics, Mamun University, Khiva, Uzbekistan

³Professor, Alfraganus University, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

⁴Associate Professor, Termez University of Economics and Service, Termez, Uzbekistan

⁵Associate professor, Tashkent State University of Economics, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

⁶Professor, Tashkent State University of Economics, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

⁷Professor, Tashkent State University of Economics, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

⁸Associate Professor, Tashkent State University of Economics, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

⁹PhD, Tashkent State University of Economics, Tashkent, Uzbekistan

Emails: z.mamadiyarov@tsue.uz; s.makhmudov@tsue.uz ; bunyod_utanov@tsue.uz; d.qosimova@tsue.uz; g.bekmurodova@tsue.uz; z.khakimov@tsue.uz

Abstract

The examination of commercial bank deposits together with their influencing factors relies on econometric analyses in this paper. The econometric model for commercial bank deposit base factors used a multiple linear regression (LS) method because the data came from time series that included multiple variables. The research used 74 economic indicators spanning an eight-year period and collected those indicators in monthly intervals. The dependent variable was the deposit volume (y), while the independent variables were the inflation rate (x₁), the minimum wage (x₂), the number of individuals using digital banking services (x₃), the average interest rate on term deposits (x₄), and the per capita GDP (x₅). Our analysis, based on data from the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan, indicates that the selected independent variables are significantly related to the growth of the deposit base. The implementation of multiple linear regression (LS) answered Gauss-Markov assumption tests successfully while the Durbin-Watson test and Shapiro-Wilk test along with the Breusch-Pagan test evaluated the statistical import of the obtained results. The key findings indicate that a 1% increase in the inflation rate leads to a 1.06% decrease in the deposit volume; a 1% increase in the minimum wage results in a 0.32% increase in the deposit volume; a 1% increase in the number of individuals using digital banking services leads to a 0.59% increase in the deposit volume; a 1% increase in the average interest rate on term deposits results in a 0.81% increase in the deposit volume; and a 1% increase in per capita GDP causes a 0.79% increase in the deposit volume. Banks should concentrate their efforts on fighting inflation while developing their digital systems because these strategies build a better deposit base, which boosts interbank rivalry and supports economic stability.

Keywords: Deposits; Household Deposits; Deposit volume; Inflation rate; Average interest rate on term deposits; Minimum wage