Neutrosophic model-driven decision support system for international market selection based on Montecarlo simulation and a novel neutrosophic AHP score function

Rojas-Gualdrón, Rafael^{1, *}, Lozano-Suarez, Lina¹, Polo-Triana, Sonia¹

¹ Industrial Engineering Program, Universidad de Investigación y Desarrollo – UDI (Colombia)

Emails: rrojas7@udi.edu.co; llozano7@udi.edu.co; spolo2@udi.edu.co

Abstract

This article presents a tool for international market selection (IMS) that integrates Neutrosophic Analytic Hierarchy Process (Neutrosophic AHP) and Monte Carlo simulation to reduce uncertainty in export decision-making. The methodology begins with a comprehensive literature review identifying five key criteria and twenty-three sub-criteria for IMS, supported by the insights of five notable authors in the field. Using Neutrosophic AHP, the weights of each criterion and sub-criterion are calculated and incorporated into a mathematical model designed for market selection. Data are collected from globally renowned sources and adjusted to probability distributions, enabling scenario simulation through Monte Carlo. The developed algorithm evaluates 193 countries, generating a ranking of potential destinations based on the determined weights and obtained information. The tool is validated by testing hundreds of products from 4,290 tariff lines under the SA 2012 version, confirming its applicability across diverse commercial contexts. The results highlight the tool's ability to accurately and adaptively identify viable export markets, offering a robust model for strategic decision-making in business internationalisation.

Keywords: Decision-making models; Export logistics; international market selection; Neutrosophic AHP; Monte Carlo simulation; Trade barriers