An Effective Mechanism for Early Pandemic Detecting COVID-19 Rediction based on Time Series Data and WPRO-Based Deep Learning RNN

 

 

 

Zaid Derea1,*,  Ammar Kazm2,  Manar Bashar Mortatha2,  Oday Ali Hassen2 ,  Esraa Saleh Alomari2,*

 

1College of Computer Science and Information Technology, Wasit University, Wasit 52001, Iraq

 

2Department of Computer, College of Education for Pure Sciences, Wasit University. Iraq

 

3Ministry of Education, Wasit Education Directorate, Wasit, Iraq

 

 

Abstract

Rapid spread of Corona virus 2019 (COVID-19) is predictable to create high contact on healthcare organization. Early detection of this disease is required to make precise treatment that further helps to increase the survival rate of humans. However, detecting the COVID-19 at beginning stage is one of a major challenge in the world because of rapid disease spread. Various existing methods are developed to detect the disease, but generating accurate result at the beginning stage still poses a complex task in the medical research community. Hence, an effective mechanism is modeled in this research to predict the pandemic at early with the time-series data using proposed Water Poor and Rich optimization-based Deep Recurrent Neural network (WPRO-based Deep RNN). Accordingly, proposed method is highly effective in generating the most appropriate results through deep learning classifier based on the high dimension features. However, the high dimensional data is generated through the data augmentation process by employing oversampling technique. The proposed method is more robust and increases the efficiency of the optimization algorithm by attaining global convergence results based on the fitness measure. Accordingly, the technical features of time series data to improve effectiveness of developed model. However, the proposed WPRO-based Deep RNN produced minimum Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as well as MSE values of 0.4 and 0.1714 for confirmed cases, and obtained lesser MSE and RMSE values of 0.1887 and 0.433 for the cases of death. Moreover, proposed model achieved minimal RMSE and MSE of 0.447 and 0.1901 for the recovered cases.  

 

Emails: zabdulameer@uowasit.edu.iq; aawaad@uowasit.edu.iq; manar@uowasit.edu.iq; odayali@uowasit.edu.iq; ealomari@uowasit.edu.iq

 

 

Received: January 28, 2025 Revised: March 10, 2025 Accepted: April 02, 2025

 

Keywords: Deep learning; Water Cycle Algorithm (WCA); Epidemic prediction; Time-series; Water Poor and Rich optimization (WPRO)