Intelligent Data Analysis of Asymmetric Oil Price Transmission and
Financial Development: Evidence from an Emerging Market
Economy
Heba Moselhy1,∗, Noura Metawa2
1Business Administration Department, Delta Higher Institute for Management and Accounting Information Systems,
Egypt
2College of Business Administration, University of Sharjah, UAE
3College of Business Administration, Mansoura University, Egypt
Emails: hebamoselhy5299@std.mans.edu.eg; nmetawa@sharjah.ac.ae
Abstract
This article provides a data analysis framework to study asymmetric macro-financial relationships in an emerging
market economy with significant energy dependence. Using annual observations for Egypt over 1990–2024, we estimate
a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) error-correction model in which changes in Brent crude
prices are algorithmically decomposed into positive and negative cumulative partial-sum series. A composite financialdevelopment
index, constructed from banking-sector depth indicators, enters the model both as a direct regressor and
as an interaction term with each shock component. The results show that positive oil-price shocks carry a substantially
larger long-run penalty on real GDP growth than negative shocks of equal magnitude—consistent with the cost-side
exposure of a net oil-importing economy. Financial deepening conditions the transmission of these shocks but does
not neutralise them; the allocation of credit toward productive private-sector activity, rather than the aggregate
volume of intermediation, determines the direction of the moderating effect. Rolling-window and dynamic multiplier
analyses confirm structural instability in the oil–growth relationship across sub-periods, validating the nonlinear
modelling ap-proach over standard linear alternatives. Unit root tests with structural breaks, NARDL bounds tests,
and a battery of diagnostic checks support the robustness of the estimated long-run relationships. The findings carry
direct implications for energy-risk management, financial-sector reform, and growth-stability policy in emerging
market settings.
Keywords: Data analysis; Nonlinear time series; Oil price asymmetry; Financial development; NARDL; Intelligent
business analytics; Emerging markets