Fusion: Practice and Applications
FPA
2692-4048
2770-0070
10.54216/FPA
https://www.americaspg.com/journals/show/3919
2018
2018
Comparative Analysis of Fuzzy Time Series Methods for Predicting Indonesia's Export Performance
Department of Information System, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Terbuka, Tangerang Selatan, Banten 15437, Indonesia
Lintang
Lintang
Faculty of Informatics and Computing, Universiti Sultan Zainal Abidin, Campus Besut, 22200 Terengganu, Malaysia
Zahratul Amani
Zakaria
This study aims to forecast the export volumes of oil and gas and non-oil and gas sectors in Indonesia, as export volumes reflect the economic condition of a country. The research utilizes data from BPS, spanning from January 2018 to December 2023, and employs the Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) methodology. Six different methods are applied: First-Order FTS Chen, First-Order FTS Cheng, Second-Order FTS Chen, Second-Order FTS Cheng, Markov Chain FTS, and Time-Invariant FTS. FTS is a predictive technique based on fundamental logic and various concepts and rules within fuzzy sets. The prediction accuracy is evaluated using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The MAPE values for these six methods are compared to determine the most suitable method for this case study. The findings reveal that First-Order FTS Chen achieves an accuracy of 4.07%, First-Order FTS Cheng 4%, Second-Order FTS Chen 1.61%, Second-Order FTS Cheng 1.58%, Markov Chain 3.96%, and Time-Invariant 8.88%. The results indicate that Second-Order FTS Cheng provides the highest accuracy and is effective for predicting the export volumes of oil and gas and non-oil and gas sectors in Indonesia.
2026
2026
27
44
10.54216/FPA.210103
https://www.americaspg.com/articleinfo/3/show/3919