Journal of International Economics Research JIER Pending 10.54216/JIER https://www.americaspg.com/journals/show/4221 2025 2025 Researcher of Tashkent State, University of Economics, Uzbekistan Ismailov Ismailov This study examines the relationship between implied market volatility and US equity market excess returns over the period August 2020 to December 2024. Using monthly data from the Fama–French Data Library and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), the analysis distinguishes between the effects of absolute VIX levels and monthly changes in VIX (ΔVIX). Results indicate that while high volatility levels show a weak, statistically insignificant relationship with returns, volatility shocks (ΔVIX) exert a strong and significant negative effect, with a one-point increase in ΔVIX linked to a 0.81 percentage point drop in monthly excess returns. The findings support integrating ΔVIX into investment appraisal, risk management, and tactical asset allocation frameworks to improve resilience during periods of market stress. 2025 2025 23 28 10.54216/JIER.010203 https://www.americaspg.com/articleinfo/42/show/4221