Journal of International Economics Research JIER Pending 10.54216/JIER https://www.americaspg.com/journals/show/4222 2025 2025 Associate Professor at Turin Polytechnic University in Tashkent (PhD), Uzbekistan Shokhrukh Shokhrukh   This article tried to determine how much of the sharp increase in Uzbekistan's gold and foreign currency reserves in 2019-2025 is related to the increase in gold prices, and how much to the actual changes in reserves. For this purpose, methods of economic analysis and statistical approaches were used. The study was based solely on open data published by the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Gold Council. In order to assess this relationship, a logarithmic regression model was developed 〖ln(RES〗_t)=-1.403++ 0.666 〖ln(〗⁡〖〖GOLD〗_t)〗 We calculated the elasticity of Uzbekistan’s value of reserves respect to gold prices and found that a 1% increase in the gold price typically leads to a 0.66% rise in the total official reserves. In other words, the reserves are moderately sensitive (or “semi-elastic”) to gold price movements. In simpler terms, of the impressive reserve growth seen from 2019 to 2025, roughly two-thirds (66%) came simply from higher gold prices while the remaining one-third (34%) was driven by actual increases in the physical amount of gold and foreign currency held, as well as by currency policy decisions. According to forecast scenarios for 2026-2027, reserves will increase to $64 billion if the gold price rises to $4,600, and will decrease to $51.8 billion if the price falls to $3,200. Based on these results, it is recommended for Uzbekistan to transition from a price-driven policy to a reserve management system based on asset volume, maintain the gold share around 50-55%, and implement a "Reserve Sensitivity Dashboard" system.   2025 2025 29 38 10.54216/JIER.010204 https://www.americaspg.com/articleinfo/42/show/4222