Volume 10 • Issue 2 • PP: 09–14 • 2025
Hierarchical Clustering of Global COVID-19 Statistics: Comparative Insights from Pandemic Indicators
Open Access & Copyright
© 2025 The Author(s). Published by ASPG. This article is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
Abstract
Hierarchical clustering is applied to global COVID-19 data from the Worldometer tracker, whose final update was April 13, 2024, to partition countries into clusters based on epidemiological indicators. Total cases, deaths, recoveries, active cases, tests, population, and per-million measures are standardized and analyzed using agglomerative hierar-chical clustering with Ward linkage. The evaluation yields an average Silhouette score of 38.5%, a Davies–Bouldin value of 0.87, and a Calinski–Harabasz value of 77.6. Dendrograms and principal component analysis (PCA) projections identify four clusters, reflecting differences in pandemic impact and response. The analysis finds that high-burden clusters account for almost 45% of global deaths, while low-burden clusters predominate in more than 40% of nations with fewer than 100,000 accumulated cases. The results illustrate how hierarchical clustering can support comparative public-health analysis by providing quantitative estimates of epidemiological patterns across countries.
Keywords
References
[1] World Health Organization, “Joint external evaluation tool: International health regulations,” Online, 2018.
[2] M. Moore, B. Gelfeld, A. Okunogbe, and C. Paul, “Iden-tifying future disease hot spots: Infectious disease vul-nerability index,” RAND Health Quarterly, vol. 6, no. 5, 2017.
[3] Melinda Moore, Bill Gelfeld, Adeyemi Okunogbe, and Christopher Paul, “Identifying future disease hot spots: Infectious disease vulnerability index,” RAND Corpo-ration, Santa Monica, CA, RAND Research Report RR-1605-OSD, 2016.
[4] World Health Organization, “WHO director-general’s opening remarks at the media briefing on COVID-19 –11 march 2020,” Online, 2020.
[5] Worldometer, “Coronavirus graphs: Worldwide cases and deaths,” Online, 2024.
[6] T. Hale, N. Angrist, R. Goldszmidt et al., “A global panel database of pandemic policies (Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker),” Nature Human Be-haviour, vol. 5, pp. 529–538, 2021.
[7] B. Oppenheim, M. Gallivan, N. K. Madhav et al., “Joint external evaluation (JEE) scores,” Supplementary mate-rial for the Epidemic Preparedness Index study, 2019.
[8] J. H. Ward, “Hierarchical grouping to optimize an ob-jective function,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 58, pp. 236–244, 1963.
[9] D. T. Jamison, L. J. Lau, K. B. Wu et al., “Country performance against COVID-19: Rankings for 35 coun-tries,” BMJ Global Health, vol. 5, p. e003047, 2020.
[10] S. Kumar, “Use of cluster analysis to monitor novel coronavirus-19 infections in maharashtra, india,” Indian Journal of Medical Sciences, vol. 72, pp. 44–48, 2020.
[11] P. Sengupta, B. G. Ghosh, and S. SenRoy, “An analysis of COVID-19 clusters in india – two case studies on nizamuddin and dharavi,” Research Square, 2020.
[12] M. L. F. Nascimento, “A multivariate analysis on spa-tiotemporal evolution of COVID-19 in brazil,” Infec-tious Disease Modelling, vol. 5, pp. 670–680, 2020.
[13] Anonymous, “K-means clustering of COVID-19 cases in indonesia’s provinces,” in Proceedings of the Inter-national Conference on Global Optimization and Its Applications, November 21–22, 2020.
[14] N. James and M. Menzies, “COVID-19 in the united states: Trajectories and second surge behavior,” Chaos, vol. 30, p. 091102, 2020.
[15] V. Zarikas, S. G. Poulopoulos, Z. Gareiou et al., “Clus-tering analysis of countries using the COVID-19 cases dataset,” Data in Brief, vol. 31, p. 105787, 2020.
[16] M. R. Mahmoudi, D. Baleanu, Z. Mansor et al., “Fuzzy clustering method to compare the spread rate of COVID-19 in the high risks countries,” Chaos, Solitons & Frac-tals, vol. 140, p. 110230, 2020.
[17] O. Pasin, “Clustering of countries in terms of deaths and cases of COVID-19,” Journal of Health and Social Sciences, vol. 5, pp. 587–594, 2020.
[18] A. Ramadan, A. Kamel, A. Taha et al., “A multivariate data analysis approach for investigating daily statistics of countries affected with COVID-19 pandemic,” He-liyon, vol. 6, p. e05575, 2020.
[19] N. James and M. Menzies, “Cluster-based dual evolu-tion for multivariate time series: Analyzing COVID-19,” Chaos, vol. 30, p. 061108, 2020.
[20] M. M. Kavanagh, R. Singh, and S. R. Democracy, “Democracy, capacity, and coercion in pandemic re-sponse: COVID-19 in comparative political perspective,” Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law, vol. 45, pp. 997–1012, 2020.
[21] Global Health Security Index, “Global health security (GHS) index 2019,” Online, 2019.
[22] B. Oppenheim, M. Gallivan, N. K. Madhav et al., “As-sessing global preparedness for the next pandemic: De-velopment and application of an epidemic preparedness index,” BMJ Global Health, vol. 4, p. e001157, 2019.
[23] W. J. Wiersinga, A. Rhodes, A. C. Cheng et al., “Patho-physiology, transmission, diagnosis, and treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): A review,” JAMA, vol. 324, pp. 782–793, 2020.
[24] S. Richardson, J. S. Hirsch, J. Narasimhan et al., “Pre-senting characteristics, comorbidities, and outcomes among 5700 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the new york city area,” JAMA, vol. 323, pp. 2052–2059, 2020.
[25] D. M. Weinberger, J. Chen, T. Cohen et al., “Estimation of excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pan-demic in the united states, march to may 2020,” JAMA Internal Medicine, vol. 180, pp. 1336–1344, 2020.
[26] Worldometer, “COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic,” Worldometer COVID-19 tracker, 2024.
[27] T. A. Alhasani, H. Alkattan, A. Ali, E.-S. M. El-Kenawy, and M. M. Eid, “A comparative analysis of methods for detecting and diagnosing breast cancer based on data mining,” Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Meta-heuristics, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 8–17, 2023.
[28] D. S. Khafaga, H. Alkattan, and A. A. Subhi, “Evaluat-ing the effect of optimized voting using hybrid particle swarm and grey wolf algorithm on the classification of the zoo dataset,” Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Metaheuristics, vol. 2, no. 1, pp. 8–15, 2022.
[29] H. K. Al-Mahdawi, M. Abotaleb, H. Alkattan, E.-S. M. El-Kenawy, and E. M. Mohamed, “Solving the inverse initial value problem for the heat conductivity equation by using the picard method,” Journal of Artificial In-telligence and Metaheuristics, vol. 2, no. 2, pp. 46–55, 2022.
[30] H. Alkattan, S. K. Towfek, and M. Y. Shams, “Tapping into knowledge: Ontological data mining approach for detecting cardiovascular disease risk causes among di-abetes patients,” Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Metaheuristics, vol. 4, no. 1, pp. 8–15, 2023.
[31] N. R. Abbas, H. Alkattan, H. Rabiei-Dastjerdi, M. Saber, and M. M. Eid, “Monthly solar prediction using ma-chine learning: Diyala governorate, iraq as a case study,” Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Metaheuristics, vol. 5, no. 2, pp. 41–46, 2023.
[32] H. K. Al-Mahdawi, A. A. Subhi, H. Alkattan, M. Saber,
M. M. Eid, A. A. S. Al-Mahdawi, and J. A. M. Al-Saddaee, “Solving initial value problem in composite materials for heat equation,” Journal of Artificial In-telligence and Metaheuristics, vol. 6, no. 1, pp. 8–17, 2023.
[33] T. Q. Al-Seyday, T. Qenawy, H. Alkattan, and
A. Khaled, “Securing DNS over HTTPS: A machine learning study on traffic classification using DoHBrw-2020,” Journal of Artificial Intelligence and Metaheuris-tics, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 73–81, 2024.
[34] A. Gupta and R. Kumar, “A hybrid deep learning ap-proach for brain stroke detection using MRI images,” Journal of Medical Systems, vol. 46, no. 3, pp. 1–10, 2022.
Cite This Article
Choose your preferred format
Publisher's Note
The statements, opinions, and data presented in this article are solely those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of ASPG, the journal, or its editors. ASPG and the editors disclaim responsibility for any harm arising from the use of any ideas, methods, instructions, or products described in this article, to the fullest extent permitted by applicable law.