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Journal of International Economics Research

ISSN
Online: 3070-5665
Frequency

  Continuous publication

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Open access journal. All articles are freely available online with no APC.

Journal of International Economics Research
Full Length Article

Volume 1Issue 2PP: 29-38 • 2025

Dependence of Uzbekistan's Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves Growth on the Price Factor: Analysis and Forecast

Shokhrukh Fazliddinov 1*
1Associate Professor at Turin Polytechnic University in Tashkent (PhD), Uzbekistan
* Corresponding Author.
Received: March 21, 2025 Revised: April 15, 2025 Accepted: June 10, 2025

Abstract

 

This article tried to determine how much of the sharp increase in Uzbekistan's gold and foreign currency reserves in 2019-2025 is related to the increase in gold prices, and how much to the actual changes in reserves. For this purpose, methods of economic analysis and statistical approaches were used. The study was based solely on open data published by the Central Bank of Uzbekistan, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Gold Council. In order to assess this relationship, a logarithmic regression model was developed ln(RES_t)=-1.403++ 0.666 ln(〖〖GOLD_t) We calculated the elasticity of Uzbekistan’s value of reserves respect to gold prices and found that a 1% increase in the gold price typically leads to a 0.66% rise in the total official reserves. In other words, the reserves are moderately sensitive (or “semi-elastic”) to gold price movements. In simpler terms, of the impressive reserve growth seen from 2019 to 2025, roughly two-thirds (66%) came simply from higher gold prices while the remaining one-third (34%) was driven by actual increases in the physical amount of gold and foreign currency held, as well as by currency policy decisions. According to forecast scenarios for 2026-2027, reserves will increase to $64 billion if the gold price rises to $4,600, and will decrease to $51.8 billion if the price falls to $3,200. Based on these results, it is recommended for Uzbekistan to transition from a price-driven policy to a reserve management system based on asset volume, maintain the gold share around 50-55%, and implement a "Reserve Sensitivity Dashboard" system.

 

Keywords

Uzbekistan Gold and foreign exchange reserves Price factor elasticity Sensitivity index Econometric model Macroeconomic stability Forecast Diversification

References

Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan. (2025, October 8). On the international reserves of the Republic of Uzbekistan. https://cbu.uz/uz/statistics/intlreserves/2909852/

 

Arslanalp, S., Eichengreen, B., & Simpson-Bell, C. (2023). Gold as international reserves: A barbarous relic no more? International Monetary Fund.

 

Aizenman, J., & Inoue, K. (2013). Central banks and gold puzzles. Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, 28, 69–90. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jjie.2013.02.002

World Gold Council. (n.d.). World Gold Council data. https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data

 

European Central Bank. (2025). International reserves and foreign exchange liquidity. https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/other-publications/ire/focus/html/ecb.irebox202506_01~f93400a4aa.en.html

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Fazliddinov, Shokhrukh. "Dependence of Uzbekistan's Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves Growth on the Price Factor: Analysis and Forecast." Journal of International Economics Research, vol. Volume 1, no. Issue 2, 2025, pp. 29-38. DOI: https://doi.org/10.54216/JIER.010204
Fazliddinov, S. (2025). Dependence of Uzbekistan's Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves Growth on the Price Factor: Analysis and Forecast. Journal of International Economics Research, Volume 1(Issue 2), 29-38. DOI: https://doi.org/10.54216/JIER.010204
Fazliddinov, Shokhrukh. "Dependence of Uzbekistan's Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves Growth on the Price Factor: Analysis and Forecast." Journal of International Economics Research Volume 1, no. Issue 2 (2025): 29-38. DOI: https://doi.org/10.54216/JIER.010204
Fazliddinov, S. (2025) 'Dependence of Uzbekistan's Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves Growth on the Price Factor: Analysis and Forecast', Journal of International Economics Research, Volume 1(Issue 2), pp. 29-38. DOI: https://doi.org/10.54216/JIER.010204
Fazliddinov S. Dependence of Uzbekistan's Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves Growth on the Price Factor: Analysis and Forecast. Journal of International Economics Research. 2025;Volume 1(Issue 2):29-38. DOI: https://doi.org/10.54216/JIER.010204
S. Fazliddinov, "Dependence of Uzbekistan's Gold and Foreign Exchange Reserves Growth on the Price Factor: Analysis and Forecast," Journal of International Economics Research, vol. Volume 1, no. Issue 2, pp. 29-38, 2025. DOI: https://doi.org/10.54216/JIER.010204
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