Journal of International Economics Research

Commercial banks are a key component of the financial system, and they play an important role in mobilizing savings and supporting economic growth. Understanding the structural changes in bank income is of great significance for understanding the profitability and financial stability of commercial banks. Therefore, the main aim of the present study was to examine factors affecting income growth in commercial banks in Uzbekistan (N = number of participating banks) by conducting both expert assessments (n = number of experts) and bank-level analyses (n = number of bank observations) focusing on income generation. To identify and quantitatively assess key factors, this study aimed to examine income sources in commercial banks and their relative changes based on financial indicators and expert judgments, using AHP and SEM. Financial data were collected, expert judgments were obtained, and statistical analyses were conducted. Both the relative importance of income growth factors (by AHP) and the relationships among financial indicators (by SEM and path analysis) were examined. Since no more than limited evidence could be found on the combined use of AHP and SEM in Uzbekistan, results indicated differences in the relative importance of income growth factors rather than equal contributions when each factor was assessed. The results showed that income growth was significantly and positively associated with lending activities and non-interest income. In both AHP and SEM analyses, most financial factors showed rather small differences in their relative contributions and produced varying effects, suggesting that income sources were of different importance and should be managed with appropriate strategies. The income changes found in this study are highly consistent with the importance of effective financial management, which indicates that the diversification of revenue sources has an important influence on the profitability changes of commercial banks.

This paper examines Armenia’s reliance on the EAEU market and the impact of Russia’s 2026 trade restrictions on Armenian export patterns. It covers the full range of Armenian merchandise exports from 2015 to 2025 and looks at a number of specific developments in agricultural trade in 2026. The analysis is based on a range of statistical and comparative techniques to assess the geographical structure of exports, levels of market concentration and shifts in the pattern of destinations. The Herfindahl-Hirschman Index is used as a measure of the level of concentration of exports within the EAEU. The results show that Russia continues to be Armenia’s dominant trading partner in the EAEU, taking up around 92% of Armenia’s total exports to EAEU countries in 2025. The degree of dependence is particularly pronounced in the case of vegetables, fish and fruit with Russian market shares of 98%, 97% and 93% respectively. The trade restrictions introduced in 2026 were accompanied by a fall in agricultural exports and a change in the geographical pattern of those exports. Some exporters have shifted their products to Georgia, Uzbekistan and other countries. The data available do not allow us to determine whether these other markets have made up for the loss of exports to Russia. The findings confirm that export concentration remains a significant source of vulnerability for Armenian producers and that a greater degree of market diversification would be beneficial to the stability of Armenian foreign trade.