Volume 15 • Issue 1 • PP: 21–26 • 2027
Temporal Validation of Case-Mix-Aware Credit-Card Complaint Response Analytics
Open Access & Copyright
© 2027 The Author(s). Published by ASPG. This article is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0).
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Complaint dashboards often pool unlike cases and report an overall resolution rate. For a financial-services operations team, that average can conceal which issues account for redress workload and whether a triage signal remains useful on later cases. We analyze 75,988 publicly reported U.S. credit-card complaints received in 2024. The outcome is the company’s recorded “closed with monetary relief” category, not a verified payment amount or customer satisfaction. Intake issue, sub-issue, submission channel, and company identify a transparent logistic screening model trained on January–September records and evaluated on October–December records. Report-related issues comprise 31.9%of complaints but have a 0.63% monetary-relief rate, compared with 19.16% for other issues. An exact shift-share decomposition attributes 1.81 of the 2.64 percentage points of decline from the first to fourth quarter to changing issue mix. Issue alone achieves an out-of-time area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.819; adding sub-issue and channel raises it to 0.831. A cross-company specification reaches 0.873 (95% bootstrap interval 0.867–0.878) and captures 39.4% of recorded monetary-relief responses in its highest-scoring tenth of holdout cases. The company term captures institutional and routing differences, so that result does not measure issuer quality or the gain attainable within a single firm. Case-mix-aware reporting and temporal validation support staffing review queues without automating redress decisions.
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References
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